Southeast Asia (SEA) Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market Report - October 2025
Economics
Indonesia’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.12% YoY in Q2
2025, up from 4.87% in Q1, marking the fastest pace
since Q2 2023. In August, Indonesia’s exports rose
10.67% YoY, while imports increased 11.65% YoY, but
were slower than July’s pace. The manufacturing PMI
rebounded to 51.5 in August, returning to expansion
territory for the first time in five months. Core inflation
eased to 2.31% in August, prompting Bank Indonesia to
cut its benchmark interest rate to 4.75% in September,
the sixth rate cut since the easing cycle began in late
2024.
The Philippine economy expanded 5.5% YoY in Q2
2025, up from 5.4% in Q1 and the strongest in a year.
The manufacturing PMI edged up from 50.7 in July to
50.9 in August. Core inflation eased to 2.3%, with
analysts expecting a 25-bps rate cut to 5.00% in
September. Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.96% YoY in Q2, the
second-highest since 2020. In August, exports surged
18.0% YoY and imports 18.8% despite rising US tariffs.
The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, the highest since
March. The benchmark rate was held at 4.5% in
September as inflation stayed within target.
Thailand’s GDP grew 2.8% YoY in Q2, above
expectations but below Q1’s 3.2%. In August, exports
rose 12.2% YoY and imports 10.8% YoY. The
manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.9, the highest since
April. Subdued inflation allowed the Bank of Thailand to
cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 1.50% in September.
Malaysia’s economy expanded 4.4% YoY in Q2. Exports
rebounded 6.8% YoY in August, while imports inched up
0.6%. The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, the mildest
contraction in five months. Bank Negara Malaysia also
cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.75% in September
amid weak price pressures and slowing external
demand.
Energy
In September 2025, global crude oil prices continued to
hover in the mid-$60s: Brent traded around $69/barrel,
while WTI was near $64–$65/barrel as markets pulled
back after a brief rally. The OPEC+ decision in early
September to increase production by about 137,000
bpd as part of further unwinding voluntary cuts added
to supply concerns, dampening bullish sentiment and
counterbalancing geopolitical support. Despite regions
outside the OECD, especially Southeast Asia, showing
relatively stable demand growth, global inventories
continued to swell, with rising excesses exerting
downward pressure on prices. In its September Short-
Term Energy Outlook, the EIA reaffirmed expectations
that Brent crude would average about $59.41/barrel in
Q4 2025, with prices dipping toward $50/barrel in early
2026 under continued inventory builds.
Southeast Asia (SEA) Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
Market
Causes
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in the Southeast Asian
(SEA) market were on mixed trends in September. The
leading Taiwanese PVC producer’s October shipment
offers to Southeast Asia remained stable compared to
the previous month’s level, in line with the producer’s
earlier indications. Before announcing the price, the
producer closely monitored India’s anti-dumping duties
(ADD) and market conditions. Since there was no
significant change in the market and no clarity
regarding the ADD, the producer decided not to make
any price changes. Offers from other foreign PVC
suppliers to the region posted a stable to down trend.
The average import price into the region in September
was $660/ton, down by 2.27% from August. The latest
price marked a 15.15% decline from the same month
last year.
In the domestic market, September delivery offers from
Thai PVC producers remained stable over the month.
September delivery offers from Vietnamese PVC
producers rose between VND100,000-200,000/ton ($4-
7/ton) on a monthly comparison. September delivery
offers from Indonesian PVC producers increased by
$15/ton from August.
Effects
In September, demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in
Southeast Asia (SEA) was largely weak, mainly due to
slow end-product sales. In Malaysia and Thailand, some
buyers skipped purchasing as they still had enough
stock, while others only bought as-needed volume. An
Indonesian PVC producer noted moderate sales for
September delivery. Most buyers curbed their resin
purchases based on production needs. Some
downstream players noticed that sales of finished
products in Q3 were slower than in Q2 amid poor
economic conditions. Ample supply further dampened
buying sentiment. Sour demand in Vietnam was
attributed to the rainy season. Given the unsupportive
domestic demand, a Vietnamese PVC producer had to
export their materials, whereas they normally would
not.
Outlook
Southeast Asian (SEA) polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market
participants do not see promising market prospects in
October. They have not seen any signs of improvement.
In the first two weeks of October, the Southeast Asian
market may be muted following the Chinese market due
to the Golden Week holiday. Vietnamese market players
particularly expect demand to gradually improve as the
monsoon eases. For the pricing outlook, foreign
producers may have to reduce their offers to compete
with Chinese prices. Meanwhile, October delivery offers
are expected to come out with a slight reduction, taking
cues from the strengthening local currency against the
greenback
